The hottest subsidy dependence is difficult to eli

2022-08-13
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"Subsidy dependence" is difficult to eliminate the new energy bus exam

the decline of subsidies is an inevitable stage for new energy vehicles. The original intention of subsidies is to stimulate the industrialization and popularization of new energy buses. This year, the subsidy decline has just begun to be implemented, and the performance of the industry has gone green across the board, which is obviously unreasonable

"the original intention of the new energy vehicle consumption subsidy policy is to cultivate an effective market, but the long-term implementation of the subsidy policy will not only burden the government, but also make enterprises vulnerable to dependence, and the industry is prone to low-level blind expansion, resulting in overcapacity." Earlier, songqiuling, deputy director of the Department of economic construction of the Ministry of finance, mentioned at a forum that the current subsidy decline policy has been clear, and the policy direction has also shifted from the generalized system of preferences to supporting the good and the strong

according to the previously released subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles from 2017 to 2018 will be reduced by 20% from 2016, 40% from 2019 to 2020, and the subsidy policy will be officially withdrawn after 2020. This year is just the first year of the implementation of the new energy vehicle subsidy decline. Theoretically, the decline is not very large, but it also puts a lot of pressure on the relevant new energy vehicle enterprises

just after the national day, Zhongtong bus and JAC motor released the performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2017. According to the performance forecast, the net profit of Zhongtong bus in the first three quarters decreased by 70% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit of JAC motor in the first three quarters decreased by nearly 80% compared with the same period last year. When referring to the reasons for the sharp decline in net profit, both companies said that they were dragged down by the declining subsidy standards for new energy vehicles in 2017

the original intention of the declining subsidy is mainly to force new energy vehicle enterprises through technological research and innovation by reducing the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles and improving the application conditions for new energy vehicle subsidies; Through platform, serialization, modularization and large-scale production; Increase efforts in marketing communication and innovate in terminal channels and after-sales services to reduce costs. However, it is clear that domestic new energy vehicle enterprises are not ready

performance statement of net profit diving

on the evening of October 10, Zhongtong bus released the third quarter performance forecast, which showed that the net profit in 2017 was about 110 million yuan to 130 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.84% to 71.45% from 455.27 million yuan in the same period last year. Among them, the net profit in the third quarter is expected to be 55-65 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 66.34% - 60.22% compared with the net profit of 163.4 million yuan in the same period last year

Ankai bus also issued a loss forecast announcement for the first three quarters of 2017, showing that in this month, Ankai bus is expected to have a net profit loss of 77-89 million yuan, with a profit of 6.5827 million yuan in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 12 6 times. Among them, the loss in the third quarter is expected to be 48million yuan -60million yuan. It is also understood that in the first three quarters, the cumulative sales volume of Ankai passenger cars was 6043, a year-on-year decrease of 7.78%

Jiang sometimes adopts casting structure (cast steel, cast aluminum, etc.). Huai automobile also issued a pre reduction announcement for the first three quarters of 2017. It is expected that the net profit in 2017 will decrease by about 80% compared with the same period of last year. Based on the net profit of JAC automobile of 817.5 million yuan in the same period last year, the net profit of JAC automobile in the first three quarters of 2017 was about 163.5 million yuan. In the first half of this year, JAC's net profit was 345 million yuan, so its net profit in the third quarter should also be a loss

imports and exports have increased at the same time, and imports and exports in special customs supervision areas have fallen early. Few passenger car enterprises have released performance forecasts for the first three quarters, and the performance statements of JAC automobile, which mainly specializes in passenger cars, may not be accurate. However, earlier, the performance reports for the first half of 2017 released by bus companies showed that due to policy adjustments, everyone's performance and net profit fell. In the previous half year, the net profits of Yutong Bus and Foton automobile decreased by 30%, and the net profits of BYD decreased by 23%

the sharp decline in the net profit of passenger car enterprises is not unrelated to the sharp decline in passenger car sales. According to the data, in the first half of 2017, the overall sales volume of China's passenger car industry (only refers to models above 6 meters) was 59467, down 28.5% from 83127 in the same period last year, with a net decrease of 23660, making it the worst performance in the first half of the year in the same period in recent years. Among them, the total sales volume of new energy passenger cars was 17952, down 47% from the first half of last year

according to the industry analysis, the decline in the sales of new energy passenger cars is due to the decline of subsidies and the adjustment of subsidy policies, the uncertainty of local promotion policies, the existence of local protection behavior in some regions, the insufficient driving force of market demand, the difficulty of capital operation caused by 30000 kilometers, the difficulty of power battery price reduction caused by the rise of material prices and other factors. But among them, the subsidies for new energy passenger cars are almost halved, which should be regarded as the "culprit" of the decline in sales

the performance of passenger cars over 10 meters was dragged down

according to the data of research institutions, a total of 123099 domestic new energy passenger cars were sold in 2016. In terms of vehicle type classification, the sales volume of new energy buses (more than 10 meters) was the highest in 2016, reaching 56958; The passenger sales volume of new energy is 49275; The sales volume of new energy light passenger cars was 16866. In the context of the full electrification of public transport industry, new energy buses with a length of more than 10 meters occupy an absolute advantage in sales and become the focus of each layout

take BYD as an example, the total sales volume of BYD's new energy buses in 2016 was 13278, including 1377 new energy buses in michichang, 9299 new energy buses in michichang, 1869 new energy buses in michichang and 733 new energy buses in michichang. It can be seen that BYD sold 10676 new energy buses above 10 meters in 2016, accounting for 80% of the total sales

other mainstream new energy bus enterprises also account for a large proportion of the sales of new energy buses above 10 meters, including 9469 in Zhengzhou Yutong, 5459 in Beijing Foton, 4257 in Zhuhai Yinlong, 3650 in Suzhou Jinlong, 2996 in CRRC era, 2773 in Yangzhou Yaxing, 2611 in Zhongtong bus, 2593 in Xiamen Jinlv and 2533 in Xiamen Jinlong

according to the subsidy standard of the central government in 2016, the maximum subsidy for 6-8 meter electric buses is 300000 yuan, the maximum subsidy for 8-10 meter electric buses is 400000 yuan, and the maximum subsidy for electric buses above 10 meters is 500000 yuan. At the same time, many local governments and the central government adopt a ratio of 1:1, that is, the maximum subsidy for 6-8 meter electric buses is 600000 yuan, while the maximum subsidy for new energy buses above 10 meters is 1million yuan

the subsidy standard in 2017 was significantly reduced. The maximum subsidy for 6-8 meter electric buses was 90000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 70%; The maximum subsidy for 8-10 meter electric buses is 200000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 50%; The maximum subsidy standard for electric buses above 10 meters is 300000 yuan, and the reduction ratio also reaches 40%. It also stipulates that the subsidy standard of local governments shall not exceed 50% of the central financial subsidy standard

a person in charge of new energy bus enterprises said that although the subsidy reduction rate of new energy buses above 10 meters is the smallest, due to its large proportion and high amount, it has the greatest impact on bus enterprises. "In 2016, the national subsidy plus the local subsidy for new energy passenger cars over 10 meters was 1million yuan, but this year it was only 450000 yuan. The difference of 550000 yuan made it impossible for new energy passenger car enterprises to digest it in a short time through measures such as supply chain and technological optimization"

many parties have learned that up to now, some bus enterprises are still adjusting their supply chain, products, technology and R & D. at the same time, affected by the reduction of subsidies and the 30000 km index, the sales of some new energy bus enterprises are almost stagnant, and even the sales of new energy buses are zero. Of course, this will drag down sales performance to a large extent, leading to a decline in the performance and net profit of relevant car companies

the situation of new energy passenger cars is grim

some research institutions believe that the sales volume of new energy passenger cars will increase significantly in the second half of this year, for several reasons: first, the cost control and model adjustment work done by major vehicle enterprises in response to policy adjustment and subsidy decline have been basically completed; Secondly, local policies have been gradually introduced, and the sales work can be carried out normally; Thirdly, the procurement of local bus companies will also be launched in batches; Finally, the 30000 kilometer policy will be adjusted in stages

it is reported that in view of the high-tech requirements put forward by new energy passenger cars, many passenger car enterprises need to readjust their products. For enterprises with insufficient reserves of new energy products, they are faced with the market without products. Liu Zhongling, director of Changan light passenger new energy, said that sales had been suspended due to the need to adjust previous products, and the new models will be launched at the end of July and October this year, and the second half of the year is the main order release period

however, up to now, the launch areas of new energy buses are still concentrated in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta, and mainly in the field of public transport. However, the market in some regions is saturated or close to saturation. For example, Shenzhen will realize full electrification in September this year, which is the best example. Industry insiders said that whether the decline or not, the market demand is the most important. To achieve large-scale growth of new energy passenger cars, it needs to cultivate a new market, which obviously takes time

however, if we cannot get rid of the subsidy "dependency", the more new energy buses are sold, the more losses will be made. Previously, relying on high subsidies, many bus companies achieved a "great leap forward" in revenue and net profit from 2015 to 2016. Take Yutong Bus as an example, its net profit in 2015 and 2016 reached 3.57 billion yuan and 4.044 billion yuan, while the subsidies it received in these two years were 6.86 billion yuan and 9.95 billion yuan respectively

looking at other new energy bus enterprises, the situation is similar to that of Yutong Bus, which also indirectly reflects that the domestic new energy bus enterprises "failed to resist the impact of waves, and the main hematopoietic function is insufficient, since the test of the marine garbage cleaning project of Dutch students is blocked". The decline of subsidies is a necessary stage for emerging industries. The original intention of subsidies is to stimulate the industrialization and popularization of new energy passenger cars. This year, the subsidy decline has just begun to be implemented, and the performance of the whole industry has gone green, which is obviously unreasonable

judging from the published policies, whether it is the "double point system" or the "fuel vehicle parking schedule", it has obviously tilted towards the field of new energy passenger vehicles. However, this does not mean that bus enterprises have no opportunities for development. In addition to the field of public transport, the outbreak of road buses and long-distance buses can not be ignored. It is understood that in the first half of this year, the sales volume of 1500 Zhongtong buses came from sleeper and other buses, and more than 1000 orders of Shanghai Shenlong were all from highway buses

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