The hottest subsidy is 50. Is weaning of new energ

2022-08-12
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Is the "weaning" of new energy vehicles with a 50% subsidy a crisis or a turnaround

on March 26, 2019, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the notice on further improving the financial subsidies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. The contents of the notice clearly indicate that the pressure will be released in stages to reduce the subsidy standards for new energy passenger cars, new energy buses and new energy trucks. The subsidy policy in 2019 will be implemented from March 26, and the transition period will be from March 26 to June 25. After the transition period, local subsidies will be cancelled

the subsidy will decline by 50%, and new energy buses will be the most affected.

the decline of the new energy subsidy policy in 2019 is basically consistent with the sharp decline previously predicted. On the whole, on the basis of the subsidy in 2018, the average decline is 50%, and local subsidies have been cancelled. Moreover, the new subsidy policy in 2019 also puts forward technical requirements for the mileage threshold of new energy vehicles and the energy density threshold of power battery systems

in fact, according to the regulations, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be fully withdrawn in 2021. Therefore, in order to make the smooth transition of the new energy vehicle industry, the practice of releasing the adjustment pressure by stages is adopted. In fact, Miao Wei, Minister of industry and information technology, has previously revealed that the principle of formulating subsidy policies is that after determining that all subsidies will be withdrawn in 2021, there will be no major fluctuations in the industry, and the pressure brought by the decline will be released in stages, which can prevent the big decline after the big rise caused by the large decline slope

specifically, in 2019, the subsidy standard for pure electric passenger vehicles with a mileage of 250 km to 400 km (including 250 km) is 18000 yuan, and the subsidy standard for vehicles with a mileage of 400 km or more is 256000 yuan Drive spindle element; The subsidy standard for plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles (including incremental programs) with a range of 50 kilometers or more is 10000 yuan; The decline range of new energy passenger cars is greater than that in 2018, about 49% - 55%, and the upper limit of subsidy is 90000 yuan; The minimum energy density requirement for new energy trucks has increased from 115wh/kg to 125wh/kg, and the subsidy coefficient has been adjusted. The upper limit of subsidy for N1 wechat models is only 20000 yuan; N2 light trucks and light passengers, like N3 medium and heavy trucks, enjoy a subsidy ceiling of 55000 yuan

the subsidy transition period from March 26 to June 25 is shortened to 3 months in 2019 compared with the past; After the transition period, local governments will no longer provide subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, but will instead support the "short board" construction of charging (hydrogenation) infrastructure and supporting operation services

in fact, from the perspective of the industry, the subsidy policy in 2019 is expected to have a more obvious impact on the sales of new energy passenger cars. Specifically, the highest subsidy for new energy passenger cars in the subsidy policy is more than 10 non fast charging pure electric passenger cars, and the upper limit of subsidy is 90000 yuan. In terms of technology, the energy consumption per unit load mass of non fast charging pure electric buses is no more than (EKG) and no more than 0.19wh/km · kg, and the minimum energy density of the battery system increases from 115wh/kg to 135wh/kg; The fuel saving rate of plug-in hybrid electric bus (including incremental program) should be higher than 60%; For plug-in hybrid electric bus burning gas fuel, the conversion shall be carried out according to a certain proportion based on the oil electric hybrid electric bus. The pure electric driving range of plug-in hybrid electric bus (including incremental program) is not less than 50 kilometers (constant speed method)

in addition, the new energy subsidy policy in 2019 abolished the requirement that the total mass of the battery system of new energy passenger cars should account for no more than 20% of the vehicle's curb weight; Not only that, but also the progress of subsidy payment for new energy buses with operating mileage requirements

but unlike new energy passenger cars, the industry generally believes that the new energy subsidy policy in 2019 has an obvious pulling effect on N2 light trucks and light passengers, and is relatively technical; In addition, the subsidy policy in 2019 also increased the subsidy category of plug-in hybrid trucks. The debris in the industry flew like bullets, which is believed to help increase the optional technical direction of heavy trucks

is it a crisis or a turnaround

in fact, the development of China's new energy vehicle industry is policy oriented rather than market driven. The reason why the subsidy declined significantly in 2019 is that, according to the Ministry of finance, it aims to treat "administrative dependence". The long-term implementation of the new energy subsidy policy has achieved the overtaking of China's independent brands in the field of new energy vehicles. Through financial subsidies, the goal of "Ten Cities and thousands of vehicles become projects other than building structures" has been achieved

but at the same time, while the subsidy policy has driven the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, it has also spawned a lot of industrial chaos. Three years ago, due to the high subsidy policy, the new energy vehicle market fell into a storm of fraud and compensation, which also made the industry and society question the development of new energy vehicles. With the visit and investigation of the regulatory authorities, it took nearly a year to sort out the industry chaos. Subsequently, in order to prevent the occurrence of fraudulent subsidies again, the new energy subsidy standard was changed to be adjusted once a year

in addition, driven by the new energy subsidy policy, China's independent brands have accelerated the development of the field of new energy vehicles, but in fact, from the perspective of the core competitiveness of the industry, the new energy models of independent brands are far behind joint venture brands and foreign brands. On the one hand, subsidies promote the development of industries and enterprises, on the other hand, they also make enterprises lose the competitiveness of industries and products

therefore, in the view of insiders, the decline of subsidies is also a reshuffle of the new energy vehicle industry, and car companies that expect to make money from subsidies are doomed to be eliminated. At the same time, it will force new energy vehicle enterprises to improve their competitiveness. Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC new energy, said on GAC new energy's official Weibo, "although the decline of subsidies has a certain impact on the whole industry in the short term, it is beneficial in the long term. Under the waves, the winner must be the strong factions who are so capable of controlling R & D and production costs." In fact, there have been rumors of a significant decline in the new energy subsidy policy since the end of 2018. Therefore, in the face of the adjustment of the new subsidy policy, most car companies have already taken countermeasures. On the one hand, they are working on medium and high-end models to improve the technical level and improve the supply chain system; On the other hand, it will also reduce internal costs and improve production

in addition, although the subsidy has declined significantly, the industry believes that it will not have a great impact on the sales of new energy vehicles, and various control situations can be smoothly switched. On the one hand, car companies have corresponding alternative models, on the other hand, it can also promote car companies to carry out technological changes and product iterations

the adjustment of the new policy of new energy subsidies is to promote the new energy vehicle market to return from policy orientation to market orientation; Although the sharp decline of subsidies will have a certain impact on the development of the new energy vehicle industry and auto enterprises, in the long run, it is conducive to the development of the whole industry and the improvement of the core competitiveness of auto enterprises

in fact, no matter how the subsidy is adjusted, only truly competitive product models are the final choice of the market and consumers

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