The hottest subsidy is declining, and the cost is

2022-08-09
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Subsidies decline, costs rise, new energy power battery industry is facing changes

power battery industry chain will encounter major changes. As the midstream link of the new energy vehicle industry, both ends of the power battery field are under pressure. The rise in the price of upstream raw materials has led to an increase in costs, and at the same time, car companies have shifted upward the downward pressure of subsidies. In the past two years, the power battery industry has experienced a substantial expansion of capacity to the current structural surplus

many battery manufacturers who entered in the early stage by rubbing heat and subsidies have fallen into a vicious circle: the ability of technology change is weak, products are difficult to meet standards, orders cannot be obtained, and production lines are largely idle. The profit space is compressed, cash flow pressure is large, and it is even more unable to update the production line equipment. In this context, the scale, capital and technological advantages of leading enterprises are prominent, and the industry reshuffle will be accelerated

expand production capacity

Li Qing (a pseudonym) entered the field of new energy vehicles in 2015 and witnessed the industry's great leap forward in production capacity in the past two years to the current process of structural excess

in Li Qing's view, 2015 is the first year of the development of the new energy industry. This year, the output of new energy vehicles reached 340500, more than four times that of 2014, entering a real sense of the volume stage. Thereafter, in 2016 and 2017, the output of new energy vehicles was 517000 and 794000 respectively, with an average annual growth rate of more than 50%

"I didn't expect that the annual sales volume in 2015 increased so fast that the production capacity couldn't match, and the battery factory couldn't deliver so many goods," Li Qing recalled, "At that time, the degree to which batteries were in demand was basically that they could be sold as long as they were produced. Quality was not the main indicator we considered. The lower the end, the cheaper it was, but it was easier to sell. Especially in the first half of 2016, corrosion resistance (experiments in solution) and other years, some car companies directly went to the battery factory to grab goods. Waiting at the door of the battery factory, the batteries were pulled away as soon as they came out."

Li Qing told that in 2016, the industry entered the peak of production. From 2016 to 2017, capacity intensive construction, battery plants, diaphragms, anode and cathode materials and other links have vigorously expanded capacity. Among them, power batteries have the highest value in the industrial chain, and the investment return cycle is relatively short. As a result, capital poured in, and the number of battery manufacturers reached more than 150 at the peak

at the end of 2016, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the standard conditions for automotive power battery industry (2017) (Draft for comments), which significantly raised the threshold for power battery enterprises. Among them, the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery monomer enterprises has been adjusted from "not less than 200million watt hour", which is stipulated in the previous "automotive power battery industry specification conditions". Today, this microcomputer controlled electronic hydraulic universal experimental machine produced by Shandong Star High Tech adopts electro-hydraulic proportional valve hour ", to" not less than 8billion watt hour ". The adjustment caused controversy

"this regulation was not implemented in the end. But it did make the industry very nervous at that time. Once it was implemented, car companies would not get subsidies if they purchased batteries from battery factories with an annual capacity of less than 8billion watt hours. DuPont aniline device is located in this area, so enterprises with substandard capacity will not receive orders. However, this has become an important driver of the large expansion of production capacity in the past two years." Mo Ke, chief analyst of true lithium research, told China Securities Journal

benefiting from the huge equipment demand brought by the substantial expansion of production, the lithium battery equipment industry has ushered in rapid development. According to the statistics of Zhongtai securities, the revenue growth rate of lithium battery equipment ranked first among the sub sectors of new energy vehicles in 2017, as high as 128%. The revenue of lithium battery equipment leading intelligence in 2016 and 2017 was 1.079 billion yuan and 2.177 billion yuan respectively, with a growth rate of more than 100% for 1 ton or more for two consecutive years; The net profit was 291million yuan and 538million yuan respectively, with a growth rate of 99.68% and 84.93%

and capital's pursuit of the new energy vehicle industry is heating up

Songhe capital began to pay attention to the new energy industry many years ago and set up a special fund for new energy and new materials. "Over the years, many new energy vehicle battery enterprises have been invested, and some small-scale investment institutions with low brand awareness cannot invest." Zhangshaolin, partner of Songhe capital, told me

Panshi investment is also an early group of investment institutions that pay attention to the new energy vehicle industry. "At the beginning of 2016, when we invested, many people were not optimistic about this industry. By the middle of 2016, a large number of hot money poured in and business plans floated everywhere. Some enterprises raised hundreds of millions of yuan and said they would do a battery factory, but they couldn't do it at all." Panshi investment partner chenhaodong pointed out

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