The hottest subsidy bonus is no longer the power b

2022-08-08
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The subsidy bonus is no longer the power battery to accelerate the shuffle

electromechanical; Mechanical and electrical products; New energy vehicles; Power battery; Policy subsidies; Industry information; With the end of the subsidy transition period, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China showed negative growth for the first time

according to the data of China Automobile Association, in July this year, 84000 and 80000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% and 4.7% respectively. It has decreased for the first time since January 2017. The decline in the production and sales of new energy vehicles directly affects the installed capacity of batteries. In August this year, the installed capacity of power batteries in China totaled 3.5gwh, down 17.1% year-on-year and 26.4% month on month. After years of rapid development of the power battery industry, in recent years, with the gradual decline of subsidies, the concentration has continued to improve

jixuehong, director of the automotive industry innovation center of Northern University of technology, said to China Business Daily that this is a normal and benign adjustment of the market. In this process, the strong will always be strong and the weak will always be weak. The cost pressure caused by the decline of subsidies is being transmitted, and some enterprises are (only) impacted by prices; But for some enterprises, it feels like the sky is falling. The whole industry will be in a painful period in the future and face a severe situation. The development of the industry needs a pure market experience to really grow up

subsidy policy

previously, driven by the national subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the power battery industry rose rapidly

in previous years, due to the very good development situation of electric (automobile) vehicles, the power battery grew very fast. In many years, the growth rate has exceeded 100%, which is much higher than that of traditional cars. Jixuehong preached to China business daily

in the past, driven by policy incentives, especially high subsidies, the power battery industry flourished and blossomed everywhere. From upstream lithium mining, lithium salt extraction, to battery grade lithium, especially with the development of processing and production of mechanical parts in the direction of large-scale, complex, high-temperature and high-speed use environment; Then to the various modules of the battery, including electrodes, electrode materials and diaphragms. The whole development speed is very fast. It should be said that the industrial chain is very complete. Liuguohong, chairman of Shenzhen qianhaifuwei fund, said

the industrial explosion has also bred star enterprises such as Ningde era () and BYD (). According to the data of the Institute of high technology industry, the installed capacity of Ningde times and BYD ranked first and second in the industry in the first half of 2019, with 13.64gwh and 7.36gwh respectively, accounting for about 45.45% and 24.28% of the total electricity. Far behind GuoXuan high tech (1.76gwh), Lishen (0.81gwh) and Yiwei lithium energy (0.56gwh), which ranked third to fifth, it has become a double oligarch in the domestic power battery industry

in addition, since this year, many companies in the power battery industry chain have landed on the science and technology innovation board. Such as rongbai Technology (), Hangke Technology (), Jiayuan Technology (), Hanchuan intelligence (), etc

however, with the decline of subsidies, the growth rate of production and sales of new energy vehicles slowed down. After being transmitted to the upstream, the survival condition of power battery enterprises in the second and third echelons continued to deteriorate, and a series of enterprises with installed capacity that once ranked in the top ten fell behind

in 2017, Shenzhen watmar Battery Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as watmar) also ranked third among domestic power battery enterprises with an installed capacity of 2.41gwh, equal to Ningde times and BYD. But the good times didn't last long. Just a year later, it collapsed and fell into difficulties such as the rupture of the capital chain

according to industry analysis, in addition to poor management, Waterma's dilemma is also related to the technical route of its battery products. In the practical application of new energy vehicle power battery, according to the type of cathode material, it can be divided into ternary material battery, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate and lithium titanate; According to the packaging method and shape, it can be divided into square battery, cylindrical battery and soft pack battery. According to the cathode materials, ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are the two mainstream technical routes

Waterma focuses on lithium iron phosphate batteries, and there are few product models. Lithium iron phosphate has good stability, long service life and cost advantages, but its disadvantage is that the energy density is general. As for why the ternary technology route was not selected, the relevant person in charge of watmar explained that the cobalt element required for ternary batteries was extremely scarce, and when the market completely exploded, the demand for cobalt would be difficult to meet, so the ternary route was not selected

BYD said that the lithium iron phosphate battery is characterized by high stability and good safety, but its disadvantage is that it has a lower energy density than the mainstream ternary battery

in the technical route, there is also Yinlong new energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Yinlong), which once ranked fifth and became famous due to the participation of many entrepreneurs. Yinlong focuses on lithium titanate battery, which has excellent quality, safety performance and service life, but the biggest short board is also low energy density. This makes lithium titanate batteries mostly only used in the bus or short haul bus market. While the development of this part of the market slowed down, Yinlong also fell into the dilemma of employee resignation and plant shutdown last year

it is understood that in previous years, under the influence of the linkage between passenger car subsidies and energy density, most domestic power battery manufacturers switched to ternary batteries. Ningde era therefore soared, Funeng technology is also famous for its three yuan soft bag, and GuoXuan high tech is one of the few enterprises that maintain the passenger cars equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries

this year, the subsidy has declined significantly, which has also led to the recovery of lithium iron phosphate batteries. According to the Research Report on the certificate of wealth with good contact, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles was issued in 2019, and local subsidies in the field of passenger cars were cancelled, with an overall decline of about 60% to 67%. Considering the safety of lithium iron phosphate and the economy brought by the long cycle, the marginal demand for lithium iron phosphate has warmed up under the decline of subsidies

according to the calculation of Guojin securities in July, taking 400km and 250km endurance models as examples, the comprehensive cost of lithium iron phosphate after deducting the impact of subsidies is 5600 yuan and 3500 yuan lower than Sanyuan respectively

insiders also said that the decline of subsidies will stimulate the recovery of lithium iron phosphate battery market. In June this year, the recession transition period ended, and the cost pressure of ternary lithium battery manufacturers soared. The cost, safety and endurance mileage of lithium iron phosphate are better than those of ternary lithium batteries, and lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to gain more market share in the future

concentration is further improved

in addition to the technical route, the living environment of power battery enterprises in the post subsidy era has also changed. According to the Fortune Securities Research Report, the gross profit of the industry is under pressure after the fall of the new energy vehicle subsidy in 2019

for the post subsidy era, jixuehong said: This is a normal and benign adjustment of the market. In this process, the strong will always be strong and the weak will always be weak

in the past two years, the whole industry is in a period of great integration, and the process of market integration and industrial upgrading is in progress. Policies in this regard have also played a very good guiding role. In the past, there were vehicle subsidies and subsidies for lithium battery components; Later, after the marketization, the subsidy tends to be more high-end, and there are requirements for the service life of the battery and the endurance capacity of the whole vehicle. This will greatly promote the upgrading of the whole industry. Liu Guohong said

it is understood that the current performance of domestic power battery enterprises is not optimistic, perhaps due to the impact of the subsidy retrogression policy

as the leader of ternary soft pack power batteries in China, Funeng technology ranks first in terms of shipments and installed capacity of ternary soft pack batteries in China in recent two years. However, the financial indicators of Funeng technology in recent years are not good-looking. After making profits for two consecutive years in 2016 and 2017, it has fallen into actual losses since 2018. In 2018, the non deduction loss was nearly 200million yuan, and in the first half of 2019, the non deduction loss was more than 20million yuan

GuoXuan high tech is in the same boat. In the first half of 2019, the company achieved a revenue of 3.607 billion yuan, up 38.36% year-on-year. The gross profit margin was 29.51%, far lower than the level of about 47% from 2015 to 2016, and also decreased by 4.2% compared with the same period last year. And the net operating cash flow was -262 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 87.96% over the same period last year

Huatai Securities research report pointed out that in the first half of 2019, the accounts receivable of GuoXuan high tech increased from 5.001 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 6.658 billion yuan in the middle of the year. The inventory in the middle of the year was 2.407 billion yuan, including 1.619 billion yuan of finished products, which means at least 1.5gwh of power battery inventory

even leading enterprises such as Ningde times and BYD have a downward trend in gross profit. For example, in Ningde era, from 2016 to 2018, the gross profit margin began to decline by 43.7%, 36.29% and 32.79%. By the first half of this year, it had dropped to 29.79%

along with this, the number of loading enterprises in the power battery industry has decreased and the concentration has increased

according to the statistics of China Automobile Association, in August this year, a total of 44 power battery enterprises in China's new energy vehicle market achieved loading support, 3 fewer than in July. Since 2017, the number of power battery enterprises that have achieved supporting loading has increased from 28 in February 2017 to 81 in December of that year, and then decreased to the level of 40-50 in the first eight months of this year

data show that from January to August this year, the top 3, top 5 and top 10 power battery enterprises in China accounted for 70.2%, 79.1% and 90.1% of the total output respectively; Ningde era and BYD, the top two, account for more than half of the total output. In August this year, the top 3, top 5 and top 10 power battery enterprises in China accounted for 77.9%, 85.5% and 96.4% of the total output respectively. The concentration level of enterprise output continues the trend of recent years and further improves

in this regard, Ji Xuehong said: in the transmission process of the cost pressure caused by the decline of subsidies, some enterprises have strong technical capabilities, strong relationships with customers, and are subject to (only) price shocks; But for some enterprises, it feels like the sky is falling. The whole industry will be in a painful period in the future and face a severe situation. The development of the (power battery) industry needs a pure market-oriented experience to truly grow with the development of science and technology

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